More bachelor starts, fewer postgraduate starts: what Australia's China data means for degree choices
In the official Australian education data for Chinese nationals, January–June 2026 course commencements at bachelor-plus-honours level rose about 17.5%, from 11,935 to 14,028. Postgraduate qualification commencements fell about 28.1%, from 26,103 to 18,774. If you are choosing between an undergraduate and a postgraduate route, these figures show where the recent volume moved. They do not show how hard it is to get into any course.
What these numbers count
The figures are course commencements. A commencement is a course enrolment that starts during the calendar year. One person can appear more than once if they start more than one course, so these numbers are not counts of unique students. The data is year-to-date, covering January to June of each year, and it is restricted to students with Chinese nationality.
The "new student" count in the same source is a different measure. It counts people new to PRISMS, not all course starts, so do not mix the two.
The two broad groups
| Analytical group | Jan–Jun 2025 | Jan–Jun 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bachelor plus honours | 11,935 | 14,028 | about +17.5% |
| Postgraduate qualifications | 26,103 | 18,774 | about −28.1% |
These two groups are analytical groupings. They are not official undergraduate or postgraduate fields. The grouping puts Bachelor Degree and Bachelor Honours Degree together on one side, and Graduate Certificate, Graduate Diploma, and the three Masters categories plus Doctoral Degree on the other. Diploma, Associate Degree, and Advanced Diploma sit outside both groups, so they are not included in either total.
Outside these two groups, the remaining higher education count moved from 2,175 to 1,841 over the same period.
Level-by-level detail
The table below uses the official qualification names. Percentages are rounded to one decimal place.
| Official qualification | Jan–Jun 2025 | Jan–Jun 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Associate Degree | 16 | 25 | +56.2% (small base) |
| Bachelor Degree | 10,521 | 12,270 | +16.6% |
| Bachelor Honours Degree | 1,414 | 1,758 | +24.3% |
| Diploma | 2,159 | 1,815 | −15.9% |
| Doctoral Degree | 922 | 1,058 | +14.8% |
| Graduate Certificate | 919 | 663 | −27.9% |
| Graduate Diploma | 449 | 265 | −41.0% |
| Masters Degree (Coursework) | 23,525 | 16,494 | −29.9% |
| Masters Degree (Extended) | 97 | 89 | −8.2% |
| Masters Degree (Research) | 191 | 205 | +7.3% |
The Masters (Coursework) line carries most of the postgraduate decline. Its drop of 7,031 commencements accounts for much of the change in the postgraduate group. The Associate Degree percentage looks large, but it comes from only 16 and 25 commencements, so treat it as a very small number.
What this means for a degree choice
The sector-level shift is a useful starting point. It is not a reason to pick a level on its own. The points below are practical advice, not statistics from the data.
- Confirm which qualification levels your current study or work history allows you to apply for.
- List the courses you could realistically enter at that level.
- Check each course's intake dates on the provider's own course page.
- Compare entry requirements for each course on that page.
- Keep the sector trend as background, not as the deciding factor.
For someone who is weighing a bachelor's degree against a Masters, the data supports one narrow point: postgraduate commencements in this period were lower than the year before. It does not tell you whether a particular Masters will accept you.
What the data does not show
The figures do not explain why the changes happened. They do not show admission thresholds, entry scores, or how selective any institution is. They do not give programme-level counts, so you cannot use them to compare individual courses or providers. They also do not measure employment or migration outcomes.
The education figures are not visa figures. The visa applicant type, client location, and Chinese SAR exclusions in the official visa data apply only to visa measures. They do not limit or change the commencement counts above.
June 2026 is the reporting cutoff for this data. It is not a verified publication date.